Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Center for Public Leadership)预测未来，预防不测 pdf snb 115盘 kindle 在线 下载 pmlz mobi

Bazerman and Watkins, faculty at the Harvard Business School, define predictable surprises as "an event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." They cite as examples the tragedy of 9/11 and Enron's collapse. Insisting theirs is not 20/20 hindsight, they explain how many disasters are preceded by clear warning signals that leaders miss or ignore. Characteristics of predictable surprises include when leaders know a problem exists and that problem does not solve itself and gets worse, the human tendency to maintain the status quo, and the reality of a small vocal minority (special interests) that benefit from inaction. Future predictable surprises include government subsidies, global warming, government's ignoring future financial obligations in medical costs and retirement commitments, and the large obligations airlines have in frequent flyer miles. This is an excellent book for library patrons in both the public and private sectors. Mary Whaley

Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

Preface

Acknowledgments

What is a Predictable Surprise?

A Preview

PART I PROTOTYPES OF PREDICTABLE SURPRISES

2 September 11

　　The Costs of Ignoring a Predictable Surprise

　　The Collapse of Enron and the

　　Failure of Auditor Independence

PART II WHY DON'T WE ACT ON WHAT WE KNOW?

　4 Cognitive Roots

　　The Bole of Human Biases

　　Organizational Roots

　　The Role of lnstitutional Failures

　6 Political Roots

　　The Role of Special-Interest Groups

……

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Bazerman and Watkins, faculty at the Harvard Business School, define predictable surprises as "an event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." They cite as examples the tragedy of 9/11 and Enron's collapse. Insisting theirs is not 20/20 hindsight, they explain how many disasters are preceded by clear warning signals that leaders miss or ignore. Characteristics of predictable surprises include when leaders know a problem exists and that problem does not solve itself and gets worse, the human tendency to maintain the status quo, and the reality of a small vocal minority (special interests) that benefit from inaction. Future predictable surprises include government subsidies, global warming, government's ignoring future financial obligations in medical costs and retirement commitments, and the large obligations airlines have in frequent flyer miles. This is an excellent book for library patrons in both the public and private sectors. Mary Whaley

Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

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